Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021/2022
Second Quarter of 2022: Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg: Considerable Pressure on the Economy
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has massively worsened economic expectations. However, these developments are still only partially reflected in economic value added and the corresponding short-term forecasts. According to the latest Nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 percent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, but slightly positive growth is forecast again for the following quarter.
Figure 1: Rates of change in GDP from the previous quarter, 2020-2022
© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2022. Data sources: 2020q1 to 2022q1; Statistisches Landesamt; 2022q2 to 2022q4: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.
These forecasts were calculated using a nowcasting and forecasting model developed by the University of Hohenheim in collaboration with the Institute for Applied Economic Research. The term nowcasting means that it is a forecast of a variable for the current quarter, whose actual value from official calculations will not be published until the following quarter.
Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level
According to preliminary figures from the State Statistical Office, the first quarter of 2022 in Baden-Württemberg, with GDP growth of 1.4 percent, developed considerably more favorably than at the national level, where GDP increased by only 0.2 percent. It must be borne in mind, however, that experience has shown that the provisional values of the national accounts of the federal states are more subject to revision than at the federal level (Döhrn 2021).
Figure 4: Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level
© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2022. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2020q1 to 2022q1: Statistisches Landesamt; 2022q2 to 2022q3: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the national level: 2020q1 to 2022q1: Statistisches Bundesamt; 2022q2 to 2022q3 ifoCAST, Arbeitsgemeinschaft Gemeinschaftsdiagnose (GD). The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.