Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021/2024

First quarter of 2024: Baden-Württemberg economy at crawl.

No significant economic growth is expected in Baden-Württemberg in the first quarter of 2024 either. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, gross domestic product (GDP) - adjusted for seasonal and working day effects - will only increase at a growth rate of 0.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The two subsequent quarters will also be characterised by low economic momentum, with the forecast growth rate moving only slightly upwards.

Quarter-on-quarter rates of change in GDP, 2021-2024

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources: 2021q3 to 2023q4: Ministry of Economy, Labour and Tourism; 2024q1 to 2024q3: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.}

The very subdued economic development forecast for 2024 would be less worrying if economic output had not fallen by 0.5 per cent in the previous year according to preliminary calculations. According to the new forecast, it is unlikely that these losses in economic value added will be recouped in the near future.

The forecasts for the first quarter of 2024 and the two subsequent quarters were calculated using a nowcasting and forecasting model developed by the University of Hohenheim in collaboration with the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW). The term nowcasting means that the GDP forecast is for the current quarter, for which the official calculation will not be published until the following quarter.

Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level

The forecast for Baden-Württemberg can be compared with forecasts for the federal level. The GDP nowcast of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK) for the first quarter of 2024 from 1 March 2024 and the ifo nowcast and forecast values published on 8 March 2024 (ifoCAST 2024) are used for this purpose. The current forecast by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) from 1 March 2024 (Boysen-Hogrefe et al. 2024) is also included in the comparison. The figure below compares the various forecasts for the federal level and for Baden-Württemberg.

Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2021q4 to 2023q4: Ministry of Economics, Labour and Tourism; 2024q1 to 2024q3 IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the federal level: 2021q4 to 2023q4: Federal Statistical Office; 2024q1 to 2024q3: ifoCAST, IfW-Prognose (Boysen-Hogrefe et al. 2024), BMWK 2024. All data are price, seasonally and working-day adjusted, seasonal adjustment of national accounts values according to X13 JDemetra+.}

For the first quarter of 2024, the ifo Institute's nowcast for the federal level is once again significantly worse than the IAW-Hohenheim nowcast for Baden-Württemberg, while the forecasts for the second quarter are similar. The BMWK and IfW models predict very similar values to the IAW-Hohenheim-Nowcast for the first quarter. In this respect, it is difficult to recognise systematic differences between the federal and state governments. In 2023, however, the trend in Baden-Württemberg was worse than in Germany as a whole.

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2021 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2021 (in German)