Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021 - 2026

Second quarter of 2026: Signs of economic recovery

According to the latest nowcast by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg’s gross domestic product is set to rise by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects. Positive growth is also forecast for the following two quarters, although this is expected to slow towards the end of the year.

Quarter-on-quarter rates of change in GDP, 2024-2026

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2026. Data sources: 2024q1 to 2026q1: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Tourism; 2026q2 to 2026q4: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.}

The term nowcasting means that this is the GDP forecast for the current quarter, for which the official calculation will not be published until the following quarter.

Long-term development of real GDP

Over the past ten years, the most striking development has been the exceptional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 and the rebound in the two subsequent quarters. From the start of 2022 until early 2024, value added in Baden-Württemberg remained at a largely constant level. In 2024, the Baden-Württemberg economy fell into a deep recession. There was a modest upturn in some quarters of the following year, but this was not enough to bring growth back into positive territory in 2025.

GDP level in Baden-Württemberg, 2017-2026

© IAW und Universität Hohenheim 2026. Data sources: 2017q1 to 2026q1: Statistical Office and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Tourism Baden-Württemberg; 2026Q2 to 2026q4: IAW and University of Hohenheim; eigene Berechnungen. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.

Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level

The recession of 2024 and 2025 hit Baden-Württemberg harder than Germany as a whole. However, the current upward trend is also stronger. The nowcast for Baden-Württemberg’s GDP in the second quarter of 2026 lies above the reference values for the federal government – with the exception of the ifo-cast, which differs only slightly from the IAW-Hohenheim nowcast. For the subsequent quarters, the results for the federal government are all at the zero line, whilst slight positive growth is forecast for Baden-Württemberg.

Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2026. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2024q1 to 2026q1: Ministry of Economics, Trade and Tourism; 2026q2 to 2026q4: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the federal level: 2024q1 to 2026q1: Federal Statistical Office; 2026q2 to 2026q4: ifoCAST 2026, Joint Economic Forecast 2026 Project Group, BMWE 2026. All data are price, seasonally and working-day adjusted, seasonal adjustment of national accounts values according to X13 JDemetra+.}

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2026 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2023 (in German)