In the third quarter of 2023, the growth of Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) will slip slightly into negative territory. In the two following quarters, there could be weakly positive economic growth again. As far as can be foreseen at present, 2023 will nevertheless be recorded in the statistics as a year with very weak growth. These are the results of current calculations by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim.
As of today, Prof. Dr. Martin Biewen (2nd from right) takes over as Scientific Director of the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) in Tübingen. He succeeds Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Kohler, who held this office for ten years. In the future, Professor Biewen will lead the IAW together with Prof. Dr. Bernhard Boockmann.
Baden-Württemberg economy: The weak phase continues (in German).
According to the current nowcast of the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, the Baden-Württemberg economy will grow by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. Together with the forecasts for the third and fourth quarters, this results in a projected growth rate for 2023 as a whole of 0.6 percent compared to 2022. This would mean that the economy would only grow by half as much as in 2022.
Press release March 16, 2023
Baden-Württemberg in winter recession (in German).
In the first quarter of 2023, the economy in Baden-Württemberg is expected to decline by 0.2 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects. According to preliminary calculations, economic output already declined by 0.3 per cent in the previous quarter. According to the common definition, Baden-Württemberg is then in a recession phase.
Press release February 7, 2023
Significant increase in the shadow economy in 2023 due to unfavourable economic development (in German).
For Germany and the year 2023, a strong increase in the shadow economy of 60 billion euros (or from 9.4% to 10.2% of the gross domestic product) is expected compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to the forecast unfavourable economic development. In Germany, however, the shadow economy is growing less strongly than in most other larger industrialised countries.
Press release December 21, 2022
Growth comes to a standstill (in German).
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter after price and seasonal adjustments, according to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim. Slight economic growth of 0.3 percent is again forecast for the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the predicted economic situation worsens compared to the previous nowcast from September 2022.
Press release December 8, 2022
Migrating foreign skilled workers - missed opportunities for the German labour market? (in German)
Between 2000 and 2020, more than 18 million foreigners migrated to Germany, while at the same time more than 13 million foreigners left the country (excluding refugee migration). The reasons given by the emigrants for their return migration are manifold. About a quarter of the respondents left Germany for professional reasons (unemployment, no suitable employment, lack of recognition of professional qualifications). Another quarter of the emigrations were for reasons of residence law. A lack of social integration is also frequently cited as a reason, while economic or family reasons are less common. In many cases, the departure results from a bundle of different structural and individual factors.
Press release September 21, 2022
On the brink of recession (in German).
According to the current nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters (see appendix). Thus, the Baden-Württemberg economy does not yet appear to be entering recession in 2022. However, this result is on a knife edge in view of great uncertainties.