Significant increase in the shadow economy in 2023 due to unfavourable economic development (in German).
For Germany and the year 2023, a strong increase in the shadow economy of 60 billion euros (or from 9.4% to 10.2% of the gross domestic product) is expected compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to the forecast unfavourable economic development. In Germany, however, the shadow economy is growing less strongly than in most other larger industrialised countries.
Press release December 21, 2022
Growth comes to a standstill (in German).
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter after price and seasonal adjustments, according to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim. Slight economic growth of 0.3 percent is again forecast for the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the predicted economic situation worsens compared to the previous nowcast from September 2022.
Press release December 8, 2022
Migrating foreign skilled workers - missed opportunities for the German labour market? (in German)
Between 2000 and 2020, more than 18 million foreigners migrated to Germany, while at the same time more than 13 million foreigners left the country (excluding refugee migration). The reasons given by the emigrants for their return migration are manifold. About a quarter of the respondents left Germany for professional reasons (unemployment, no suitable employment, lack of recognition of professional qualifications). Another quarter of the emigrations were for reasons of residence law. A lack of social integration is also frequently cited as a reason, while economic or family reasons are less common. In many cases, the departure results from a bundle of different structural and individual factors.
Press release September 21, 2022
On the brink of recession (in German).
According to the current nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters (see appendix). Thus, the Baden-Württemberg economy does not yet appear to be entering recession in 2022. However, this result is on a knife edge in view of great uncertainties.
Press release June 13, 2022
Considerable pressure on the economy (in German).
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has massively worsened economic expectations. However, these developments are still only partly reflected in the economic value added and the corresponding short-term forecasts. According to the current Nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, but slightly positive growth is forecast again for the following quarter.
Press release March 17, 2022
Even without war in Ukraine, growth prospects would be weak (in German).
According to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 after price and seasonal adjustments. Positive but overall weak growth is forecast again for the two subsequent quarters. This forecast does not yet take into account the effects of the war in Ukraine.
Press release February 8, 2022
Significant decline in the shadow economy in Germany (in German).
For Germany and the year 2022, a decline in the shadow economy is expected compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to the economic recovery after the Corona pandemic. The plans of the "traffic light" coalition to increase the minimum wage and expand mini-jobs have had the opposite effect on the shadow economy..
Press release December 22, 2021
Fourth Quarter 2021: Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg - Zero Growth Remains for the Time Being (in German).
The economic recovery from the Corona crisis is receding further into the distance in Baden-Württemberg. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the third quarter of 2021 after adjusting for prices and seasonal factors. The third quarter had already developed weaker than expected. According to the forecast for the two subsequent quarters, the weak development will continue into 2022. However, all current forecasts are still subject to considerable uncertainty due to the severe economic dislocations during the Corona pandemic, as the further forecast intervals show.
