Economic forecast for Baden-Württemberg for the 2nd quarter 2026: Signs of life from the economy.

Preliminary figures already showed an increase in economic output in the first quarter of 2026. This could be explained by improved export expectations resulting from a relatively stable trade policy environment, as well as higher order intake in the manufacturing sector. However, timing effects – such as purchases being brought forward or postponed – are also a possibility. “The growth drivers taking effect in 2026 are likely, for the most part, already behind us,” says IAW Director Bernhard Boockmann. However, future GDP growth will be significantly influenced by trends in energy prices; this is currently the area of greatest uncertainty.

The IAW and the University of Hohenheim produce the GDP forecast for Baden-Württemberg four times a year. The project is funded by the Baden-Württemberg Ministry of Economic Affairs, Crafts and Tourism.

Contact persons:

Prof. Dr. Bernhard Boockmann, Tel. +49 7071 9896-20, bernhard.boockmann@iaw.edu

Dr. Karsten Schweikert, Tel. +49 711 459-24713, karsten.schweikert@uni-hohenheim.de