Economic forecast for Baden-Württemberg for the third quarter of 2025: The economy is moving cautiously upward.

This could indicate that the economy in Baden-Württemberg is slowly emerging from its long period of stagnation. However, the indicators underlying the forecast for the manufacturing sector, which is particularly important in Baden-Württemberg, show that economic activity did not increase in August and September 2025 despite some positive signals. Rather, the positive development is driven by demand. Demand in the wholesale and retail sectors has remained relatively stable. The increase in demand is also noticeable in foreign trade: the value of imports is rising, while exports are stagnating.

The nowcast and forecast for Baden-Württemberg's GDP are based on a total of 95 different individual indicators for Baden-Württemberg, Germany, the EU, and the world. Compared to existing nowcasts for Germany as a whole, the nowcast for Baden-Württemberg is slightly above the reference values for the federal government. For the fourth quarter, the results of the IAW Hohenheim forecast and current forecasts for the federal level coincide.

Contact persons:

Prof. Dr. Bernhard Boockmann, Tel. +497071 9896-20, bernhard.boockmann@iaw.edu

Dr. Karsten Schweikert, Tel. +49711 459-24713, karsten.schweikert@uni-hohenheim.de