Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021 - 2025

Third quarter of 2025: Cautious upward trend

The economy in Baden-Württemberg is slowly emerging from stagnation and moving toward positive economic growth. After real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Baden-Württemberg remained close to zero in 2023 and 2024, the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, GDP will increase by 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, adjusted for seasonal and working day effects. Positive growth of a similar magnitude is also forecast for the following two quarters.

Quarter-on-quarter rates of change in GDP, 2023-2026

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2025. Data sources: 2023q2 to 2025q2: Ministry of Economy, Labour and Tourism; 2025q3 to 2026q1: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.}

The term nowcasting means that this is the GDP forecast for the current quarter, for which the official calculation will not be published until the following quarter.

Long-term development of real GDP

Over the last ten years, the most striking development has been the special impact of the coronavirus pandemic on GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 and the counter-movement in the two following quarters. From the beginning of 2022 to the beginning of 2024, value added in Baden-Württemberg remained at a largely constant level before declining significantly in 2024. The plateau visible in the figure below and the subsequent recession have significantly slowed the long-term development of GDP. The current forecast values indicate a reversal of this process, albeit to a rather modest extent. If the forecast values prove accurate and the increase in economic performance is sustainable, GDP levels could potentially emerge from the long period of depression that began in 2021.

GDP level in Baden-Württemberg, 2016-2026

© IAW und Universität Hohenheim 2025. Data sources: 2016q2 to 2025q2: Statistical Office and Ministry of Economy, Labour and Tourism Baden-Württemberg; 2025Q3 to 2026q1: IAW and University of Hohenheim; eigene Berechnungen. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.

Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level

A comparative analysis initially shows that, based on preliminary figures, growth in Baden-Württemberg in the second quarter is higher than at the federal level. The nowcast for Baden-Württemberg's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 is slightly above the reference values for the federal government. For the fourth quarter, the results of the IAW Hohenheim forecast and the ifoCAST coincide, while the joint diagnosis from spring 2025 had predicted even lower growth at the end of the year.

Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2025. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2023q2 to 2025q2: Ministry of Economics, Labour and Tourism; 2025q3 to 2026q1: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the federal level: 2023q2 to 2025q2: Federal Statistical Office; 2025q3 to 2025q4: ifoCAST, Joint Economic Forecast 2025 Project Group, BMWK 2025. All data are price, seasonally and working-day adjusted, seasonal adjustment of national accounts values according to X13 JDemetra+.}

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2022 (in German)