Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021 - 2026

Third quarter of 2026: Signs of growth remain fragile.

The latest forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) in Baden-Württemberg points to a positive economic outlook for 2026. This trend could continue into the coming winter. However, the underlying indicators do not paint a uniformly positive picture. The current nowcast forecasts GDP growth of 0.4 per cent for the third quarter of 2026 – seasonally and working-day adjusted. Growth of 0.3 per cent is forecast for each of the following two quarters (see figure). Growth of 0.3 percent is forecast for each of the next two quarters. This would mean that the positive trend in Baden-Württemberg’s economy since the beginning of the year- as reflected in the preliminary figures for 2026 - would continue, albeit at a slower pace.

Quarter-on-quarter rates of change in GDP, 2024-2027

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2026. Data sources: 2024q2 to 2026q2: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Tourism; 2026q to 2027q1: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.}

The term nowcasting means that this is the GDP forecast for the current quarter, for which the official calculation will not be published until the following quarter.

Long-term development of real GDP

Over the past ten years, the most notable development has been the exceptional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 and the rebound in the two subsequent quarters. From the beginning of 2022 through early 2024, value added in Baden-Württemberg remained at a largely constant level. In 2024, Baden-Württemberg’s economy fell deep into recession. There was a modest upturn in some quarters of the following year, but this was not enough to bring growth back into positive territory in 2025. According to the forecast, Baden-Württemberg’s economy could emerge from the recession in 2026. For the first time, real GDP could even exceed the previous record high, which was reached in the third quarter of 2022.

GDP level in Baden-Württemberg, 2017-2027

© IAW und Universität Hohenheim 2026. Data sources: 2017q1 to 2026q2: Statistical Office and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Tourism Baden-Württemberg; 2026q3 to 2027q1: IAW and University of Hohenheim; eigene Berechnungen. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.

Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level

The recession of 2024 and 2025 hit Baden-Württemberg harder than Germany as a whole. The recovery in the first half of 2026 was also more pronounced. Although all forecasts predict positive growth by the end of the year, the projected timeline varies significantly. Notable are the high growth rates for Germany as a whole, which, according to the nowcasts from the BMWE and the ifo Institute, are projected for individual quarters.

Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2026. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2024q2 to 2026q2: Ministry of Economics, Trade and Tourism; 2026q3 to 2027q1: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the federal level: 2024q2 to 2026q2: Federal Statistical Office; 2026q3 to 2027q41 ifoCAST 2026, Joint Economic Forecast 2026 Project Group, BMWE 2026. All data are price, seasonally and working-day adjusted, seasonal adjustment of national accounts values according to X13 JDemetra+.}

Forecast for rhe 3rd quarter 2026 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2026 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2025 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2023 (in German)