In the fourth quarter of 2022, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter after price and seasonal adjustments, according to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim. Slight economic growth of 0.3 percent is again forecast for the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the predicted economic situation worsens compared to the previous nowcast from September 2022.
In-company training participation in Baden-Württemberg increased slightly in 2021, but more training positions remained unfilled.
Both the net and gross training company rates increased again in the country from 49% to 52% and from 27% to 29% respectively, while the proportion of companies that did not provide in-house vocational training despite having a training authorization fell slightly from around 27% to around 26%. In Germany and western Germany, however, the net training company rates were four percentage points higher and the unutilized in-company training potential was also around two percentage points lower in each case.
In the 2020/2021 training year, around 28% of the in-company training places on offer in Baden-Württemberg remained unfilled, compared with around 23% in the 2019/2020 training year. At 72%, the filling rate in the state was at roughly the same level as in western Germany (73%).
According to the current nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters (see appendix). Thus, the Baden-Württemberg economy does not yet appear to be entering recession in 2022. However, this result is on a knife edge in view of great uncertainties.
On the brink of recession
Rising energy prices and high inflation rates are currently worsening the longer-term economic outlook. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2022 remained at roughly the same level as in the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters. For the time being, Baden-Württemberg is not predicted to enter a recession - a decline in GDP over two quarters. However, this outcome is on a knife-edge in view of great uncertainty about geopolitical and global economic developments.
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has massively worsened economic expectations. However, these developments are still only partly reflected in the economic value added and the corresponding short-term forecasts. According to the current Nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, but slightly positive growth is forecast again for the following quarter.
